Identifying susceptibility of children and adolescents to the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529).

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is estimated to be more transmissible than previous strains of SARS-CoV-2 especially among children, potentially resulting in croup which is a characteristic disease in children. Current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among children might be higher because (i) school-aged children have higher contact rates and (ii) the COVID-19 vaccination strategy prioritizes the elderly in most countries. However, there have been no reports confirming the age-varying susceptibility to the Omicron variant to date. METHODS: We developed an age-structured compartmental model, combining age-specific contact matrix in South Korea and observed distribution of periods between each stage of infection in the national epidemiological investigation. A Bayesian inference method was used to estimate the age-specific force of infection and, accordingly, age-specific susceptibility, given epidemic data during the third (pre-Delta), fourth (Delta driven), and fifth (Omicron driven) waves in South Korea. As vaccine uptake increased, individuals who were vaccinated were excluded from the susceptible population in accordance with vaccine effectiveness against the Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. RESULTS: A significant difference between the age-specific susceptibility to the Omicron and that to the pre-Omicron variants was found in the younger age group. The rise in susceptibility to the Omicron/pre-Delta variant was highest in the 10-15 years age group (5.28 times [95% CI, 4.94-5.60]), and the rise in susceptibility to the Omicron/Delta variant was highest in the 15-19 years age group (3.21 times [95% CI, 3.12-3.31]), whereas in those aged 50 years or more, the susceptibility to the Omicron/pre-Omicron remained stable at approximately twofold. CONCLUSIONS: Even after adjusting for contact pattern, vaccination status, and waning of vaccine effectiveness, the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 tends to propagate more easily among children than the pre-Omicron strains.

Age-Varying Susceptibility to the Delta Variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2.

Importance: The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) is estimated to be more transmissible than previous strains of SARS-CoV-2, especially among children and adolescents. However, to our knowledge, there are no reports confirming this to date. Objective: To gain a better understanding of the association of age with susceptibility to the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used an age-structured compartmental model using the terms symptom onset (S), exposure (E), infectious (I), and quarantine (Q) (SEIQ) to estimate the age-specific force of infection, combining age-specific contact matrices and observed distribution of periods between each stage of infection (E to I [ie, latent period], I given S, and S to Q [ie, diagnostic delay]) developed in a previous contact tracing study. A bayesian inference method was used to estimate the age-specific force of infection (S to E) and, accordingly, age-specific susceptibility. The age-specific susceptibility during the third wave (ie, before Delta, from October 15 to December 22, 2020, when the COVID-19 vaccination campaign was not yet launched) and the fourth wave (ie, the Delta-driven wave, from June 27 to August 21, 2021) in Korea were compared. As vaccine uptake increased, individuals who were vaccinated were excluded from the susceptible population in accordance with vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant. This nationwide epidemiologic study included individuals who were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the study period in Korea. Data were analyzed from September to November 2021. Exposures: Age group during the third wave (ie, before Delta) and fourth wave (ie, Delta-driven) of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-specific susceptibility during the third and fourth waves was estimated. Results: Among 106 866 confirmed COVID-19 infections (including 26 597 infections and 80 269 infections during the third and fourth waves of COVID-19 in Korea, respectively), a significant difference in age-specific susceptibility to the Delta vs pre-Delta variant was found in the younger age group. After adjustment for contact pattern and vaccination status, the increase in susceptibility to the Delta vs pre-Delta variant was estimated to be highest in the group aged 10 to 15 years, approximately doubling (1.92-fold increase [95% CI, 1.86-fold to 1.98-fold]), whereas in the group aged 50 years or more, susceptibility to the Delta vs pre-Delta variant remained stable at an approximately 1-fold change (eg, among individuals aged 50-55 years: 0.997-fold [95% CI, 0.989-fold to 1.001-fold). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to propagate more easily among children and adolescents than pre-Delta strains, even after adjusting for contact pattern and vaccination status.

Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

The proportion of population vaccinated cannot be directly translated into the herd immunity. We have to account for the age-stratified contact patterns to calculate the population immunity level, since not every individual gathers evenly. Here, we calculated the contact-adjusted population immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea using age-specific incidence and vaccine uptake rate. We further explored options to achieve the theoretical herd immunity with age-varying immunity scenarios. As of June 21, 2021, when a quarter of the population received at least one dose of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, the contact-adjusted immunity level was 12.5% under the social distancing level 1. When 80% of individuals aged 10 years and over gained immunity, we could achieve a 58.2% contact-adjusted immunity level. The pros and cons of vaccinating children should be weighed since the risks of COVID-19 for the young are less than the elderly, and the long-term safety of vaccines is still obscure.